Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, left, receives an HBM4 semiconductor wafer produced by SK hynix from Chey Tae-won, chairman of SK Group and the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit at the Gyeongju Arts Center in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang, on Oct. 31, 2025.JOINT PRESS CORPS
Park Seok-hyun
The author is an equity strategist at Woori Bank WM Group.
Domestic policies may strengthen the foundations of the Korean market, but Wall Street and Silicon Valley still determine the direction of global capital. The real force behind this year’s rally in Korean stocks has likewise been the aggressive investment decisions made by major U.S. technology companies.
Korea’s exports reached $496.7 billion in the first half of this year, up 48.4 percent from the same period last year. Exports in June alone totaled $102.3 billion, surpassing the $100 billion mark for the first time on a monthly basis.
Semiconductors were responsible for most of the increase. Semiconductor exports climbed 163 percent on year to $192.4 billion during the first six months. Excluding semiconductors, export growth was limited to 16.4 percent. That figure still indicates solid performance, but given that exports rose only 3.8 percent last year, it is more appropriate to interpret the trend as a recovery rather than a boom.
The divide is equally visible in corporate earnings forecasts. Market consensus for the 2026 operating profit of companies listed on the Kospi rose from 440 trillion won ($295.3 billion) at the start of the year to 943 trillion won at the end of June, an upward revision of 503 trillion won in just six months.
Most of the increase, however, came from semiconductor firms. Operating profit forecasts for the sector jumped from 175 trillion won to 679 trillion won, while estimates for other industries have remained largely unchanged this year.
Stock prices tend to move ahead of the real economy. Markets are quick to incorporate changes in business conditions and earnings expectations into share prices. Because Korea’s export growth has become heavily dependent on semiconductors and upward revisions to profits have been concentrated in the sector, investors and capital have increasingly flocked to chipmakers.
This concentration has deepened imbalances in the domestic market. The unusually high volatility seen in the Kospi this year is also a side effect of excessive dependence on a narrow group of stocks.
That concentration is now approaching a critical juncture. The record growth in semiconductor exports and unprecedented upgrades to earnings forecasts have been driven by the aggressive expansion of AI investment by major U.S. technology companies. Recently, however, investors have begun to question whether such spending can continue.
Second-quarter earnings reports from Big Tech, beginning with Alphabet on July 22, will provide an important test of the sustainability of this investment cycle. The long-term direction of the Kospi cannot be explained by domestic policies or market liquidity alone. Ultimately, it will depend on the future investment decisions of global technology giants.
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
