Oh Se-hoon faces his biggest political crisis after guilty verdict

Just 50 days after securing a dramatic victory in the June 3 local elections, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon now faces the gravest political crisis of his career.

The Seoul Central District Court on Wednesday fined Oh 10 million won ($6,760) for violating the Political Funds Act.

Although the conviction is not yet final, the ruling alone is widely seen as a major blow to Oh's political future, as the Seoul mayor is widely regarded as one of the conservative bloc's leading potential presidential contenders.

If the conviction is upheld, he would not only lose his office but also be barred from running for public office for five years, effectively ruling him out of the next presidential race.

Leaving the courthouse after the ruling on Wednesday afternoon, Oh denounced the verdict as "unjust."

"I cannot accept this ruling," he said. "The judgment was based solely on the testimony of Myung Tae-kyun, who is a notorious liar, and circumstantial evidence."

"I will challenge the decision on appeal," Oh added.

The mayor had remained confident that he would be acquitted until right before the verdict, according to those with knowledge of the matter. Even a key Seoul government official said before the ruling that "the chances of a guilty verdict are virtually zero, so there is no concern that Mayor Oh's leadership would be affected."

The atmosphere at Seoul City Hall, however, changed dramatically afterward.

The key question now is when a final ruling will be handed down.

Oh's case is subject to fast-track trial provisions under the special counsel law, which require a first-instance ruling within six months of indictment and appellate rulings within three months of the previous judgment. As a result, a Supreme Court decision could come as early as January next year.

If the conviction is upheld, stripping him of his mayoral title, a by-election for Seoul mayor could take place as early as April 7 next year.

The ruling sent shock waves through the opposition People Power Party (PPP).

PPP floor leader Jeong Jeom-sig questioned whether a guilty verdict could be justified based largely on the testimony of Myung, while the party's chief spokesperson Park Sung-hoon said the case raised “serious questions about whether the judiciary was acting according to the wishes of those in power.”

"Oh secured a dramatic victory in the last local elections, which elevated him into the ranks of the leading contenders for the next presidential race, but he has now run into a major obstacle," a PPP lawmaker with a legal background said. "For the PPP, the bigger concern is not whether he loses the Seoul mayoralty, but that it could lose one of its leading presidential hopefuls."

The ruling is also expected to intensify competition among conservative politicians seeking to emerge as the bloc's next leader.

"If Oh's presidential ambitions are effectively ended, rivalry among alternative contenders such as independent lawmaker Han Dong-hoon and PPP leader Jang Dong-hyeok will only intensify," a senior PPP lawmaker from the Gyeongsang region said. 

Kim Chong-hyuk, a former PPP supreme council member aligned with Han, criticized Jang in a Facebook post Wednesday.

"You couldn't wait to embarrass your own party's mayor by accusing him of election fraud and calling for a new election,” Kim wrote. “Are you satisfied now?"

Oh's office said it would "remain unwavering in carrying out its duties."

Many observers wager that Oh will respond by intensifying his attacks on the Lee Jae Myung administration in an effort to frame himself as a victim of political persecution.

"As far as Oh is concerned, his best chance is to intensify his criticism of the government and portray himself as a target of political oppression," a PPP official said.

The ruling Democratic Party (DP) also escalated its attacks on Oh.

Senior spokesperson Kang Jun-hyeon described the verdict as "justice taking its course for an obvious crime."

Rep. Park Joo-min, who ran in the DP's primary for the Seoul mayoral election, wrote on Facebook that "no further delay can be tolerated" and called for a swift conclusion to the judicial process "to bring an end to a mayor built on falsehoods."

DP members of the Seoul Metropolitan Council also urged Oh to resign voluntarily.

Within the DP, some also see the ruling as reviving the possibility of a Seoul mayoral by-election. The party suffered a major setback after its candidate, former Seongdong District Mayor Chong Won-o, lost to Oh in the recent local elections.

"If there is no error in the court's legal reasoning, Oh will likely lose his office," a second-term DP lawmaker said. "A by-election is now a realistic possibility."

BY KIM GYU-TAE, PARK JUN-KYU, RYU HYO-RIM [[email protected]]