North Korea may stage major "Victory Day" drone show

Satellite imagery suggests North Korea is preparing a large-scale drone demonstration at Panghyon Air Base, its main drone development site, ahead of July 27, the anniversary of the 1953 Korean War armistice that the North celebrates as its so-called Victory Day.

NK News, a U.S.-based outlet that monitors North Korea, reported on Wednesday that the activity had been spotted at the eastern end of the runway at Panghyon Air Base, based on an analysis of imagery from the commercial satellite company Planet Labs.

Between June 18 and July 5, the North removed aircraft revetments and earthen mounds that had lined the runway and taxiway, it said. 

The imagery also showed two grandstands, each with six rows, facing the runway, along with a multi-tiered central stand believed to be for North Korea leader Kim Jong-un and other senior officials. The grandstands appeared able to hold hundreds of people, and construction is in its final stages, according to NK News.

Panghyon Air Base, in Kusong, North Pyongan Province, is a core facility where the North has developed reconnaissance and suicide drones. A large drone hangar was built there last year, and in March, two new strategic reconnaissance drones, the Saetbyol-4 and the Saetbyol-9, were seen standing side by side for the first time at the base's drone research, test, development and engineering facility. Kim watched a test flight of the Saetbyol-4 at Panghyon in March.

Kim has repeatedly ordered the military to build up a drone production system quickly and shift into mass production. Drone technology is considered one of the biggest military gains North Korea has made through its participation in the war in Ukraine on Russia's side. North Korean troops built up experience in unmanned operations after encountering Iranian-made Shahed suicide drones during the war. Asymmetric suicide attacks using drone swarms have emerged as a potential game-changer in modern warfare that can overwhelm an enemy's air defenses. South Korean intelligence authorities are watching closely to see how much Kim, who is known for his fascination with weapons, will reveal of the drones he has championed.

NK News assessed that, given the layout of the viewing stands and the runway, the North was likely to hold an event tied to test flights of large reconnaissance and combat drones. The North's history of using "Victory Day" to display its military strength at home and abroad lends weight to that view.

The outlet also cautioned, however, that the work at the site might be part of renovations to operate a drone unit in earnest, rather than solely for a demonstration.

Signs that the North is preparing a military event have also appeared in Pyongyang. Dozens of vehicles that appear to be troop transport trucks were captured in satellite imagery of Mirim Airfield, which the authorities have previously used to prepare for parades. Planet Labs imagery taken on June 22 and 23 showed the vehicles around the airfield.

The North typically begins preparing for a large military parade two to three months in advance, and takes about a month to rehearse smaller parades led by groups such as the Worker-Peasant Red Guards. On that basis, experts broadly assess that a parade is likely around one of the North's key anniversaries: "Victory Day" on July 27; the founding of the state on Sept. 9; or the founding of the Workers' Party on Oct. 10.

BY CHUNG YEONG-GYO [[email protected]]