With Chinese humanoid robots banned from U.S., can Atlas chart a path to the lead in the market?

The United States banned imports of new foreign-made humanoid robots on Tuesday, the latest front in a technology crackdown that Washington opened with Chinese cars.

The order by the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) covers new models of humanoid and four-legged robots as well as connected power inverters, but applies only to equipment that has not yet been released. Restrictions could widen, however, with the commission's authority to revoke approval for models already cleared for sale in the United States.

The FCC cited three risks: data leaks, cyberattacks and supply chain disruption.

"Advanced robotic devices collect data that could be leveraged by malign actors to surveil Americans, enhance the capabilities of foreign intelligence services or to remotely commandeer the robots," the announcement said, adding that the equipment could also weaken U.S. supply chains and create cybersecurity risks for critical infrastructure.

U.S. officials are concerned that a foreign state could siphon off environmental and user data gathered while the robots operate, or seize control through a backdoor and use the machines to monitor or attack key facilities.

China's embassy in Washington rejected the security rationale and warned of retaliation.

"[Washington should] abandon its hegemonic mindset, and stop smearing Chinese companies and threatening them with sanctions," the embassy said. "[The Chinese government will] take all necessary measures in response to any action that causes material harm to its interests." 

Unitree is expected to take the most direct hit. The Chinese manufacturer holds close to 20 percent of the global humanoid robot market, according to Counterpoint Research, and the U.S. Defense Department recently added it to a list of companies suspected of ties to the Chinese military.

Washington had already moved against Chinese carmakers through the Connected Vehicle Rule, which bars U.S. sales of cars with internet access that were built by companies owned or controlled by China or Russia. Polestar, the Swedish EV brand majority-owned by China's Geely, was denied entry into the U.S. market under that rule and cannot sell new vehicles from the 2027 model year.

Extending the restrictions from cars to humanoids appears to be aimed at shielding the U.S. AI supply chain and pushing companies to manufacture in the United States.

With Chinese humanoids shut out of the market, attention has turned to who stands to gain. The leading U.S. contenders are Boston Dynamics' Atlas, Tesla's Optimus and Figure AI's Figure.

Hyundai Motor Group, which owns Boston Dynamics, plans for an annual production capacity of 30,000 robots in the United States by 2028. Tesla is converting the Model S and Model X lines at its Fremont plant in California into an Optimus production line.

Analysts say factory capacity alone will not deliver a "security premium," and that data storage and core component supplies must be in the United States as well.

"The U.S. has grounds to regulate Chinese high-tech products on national security and privacy grounds, given episodes like the Huawei backdoor affair," Kim Tae-hwang, a professor of international trade at Myongji University, said, referring to concerns raised by Washington.

"But this has a slightly different feel from tariff policy or economic security issues," he added. "China is ahead of the United States in the robot industry, so this is most likely about closing the technology gap and protecting the domestic industry."

Kim said U.S.-based humanoid makers such as Boston Dynamics and Tesla are likely to benefit, but he warned that Korean companies cannot afford to sit still.

"U.S. industrial regulation is expanding into the sources of capital, data control and supply chains, so the Korean auto and humanoid industries have to cut their dependence on Chinese supply chains, even at a cost," he said. "They need to invest in a domestic materials, parts and equipment ecosystem and prepare by working with allies such as Japan."

BY KO SUK-HYUN [[email protected]]